Older Americans waiting to find out how much their Social Security checks will rise next year will have to hang tight a little longer. The expected update on the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment has been pushed back — and prices are once again to blame.
Normally, new inflation data lands in mid-October, setting the stage for the official COLA announcement. But with the federal shutdown freezing reports, those key numbers never came out — leaving millions of seniors in the dark about their 2026 benefits.
Prices and the 2026 COLA
The government uses inflation data from July, August, and September to calculate how much Social Security payments should increase. Without that last month’s data, the process stalls. Officials had expected to reveal the adjustment right after the October 15 update, but the shutdown threw that schedule off.
Most forecasts now suggest a modest rise of around 2.7% to 2.8%, far from the record 8.7% spike seen in 2023. For the average retiree, that could mean about $50 more per month, or roughly $600 a year, starting in January 2026.
As of August, the average monthly benefit sat near $1,864, while retired workers received an average of just over $2,000. With a 2.7% bump, those payments could climb by about $54 a month.
Cost-of-Living Pressure Grows
Behind every small percentage lies a bigger problem: prices everywhere keep creeping up. Rent, food, healthcare, and prescription costs are hitting retirees hard, and many rely on the COLA adjustment to keep up. The longer the delay, the harder it becomes for fixed-income households to plan their budgets.
Advocacy groups have warned that the holdup isn’t just a bureaucratic issue it’s a direct hit to financial stability for millions. Without clarity, seniors can’t properly plan for rent, medical bills, or everyday expenses heading into next year.
Medicare Costs Could Wipe Out Gains
Even with a 2.7% COLA, many retirees might not feel any real relief. Medicare Part B premiums are also expected to jump in 2026 possibly the largest increase in dollar terms the program has ever seen.
Current projections show the monthly premium rising from $185 in 2025 to about $206.50 in 2026, a $21.50 increase. If that number holds, it would nearly match the record hike from 2022.
Fortunately, a “hold harmless” rule prevents Social Security checks from shrinking when Medicare premiums rise, but it still means many retirees will see little to no extra cash left over once those higher deductions kick in.
What Comes Next
The Social Security Administration typically sends official COLA notices in December. Once the missing inflation data is finally released, the agency is expected to make the 2026 adjustment official shortly after.
Until then, prices keep rising, bills keep coming, and millions of seniors are left waiting for Washington to tell them how much their monthly check will actually be worth next year.